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International Firm Hired to Help Off-Ballot GOP Senators with Messaging on WV Teacher Strike

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West Virginia Senate President Mitch Carmichael and other Senate GOP leaders hold a press conference on March 6, 2018, on the signing of a bill calling for pay raises for all state employees, including teachers. Photo: Will Price, WV Legislative Photography

As the 2018 midterm election approaches, some West Virginia Senate Republican leaders are making use of a large and influential worldwide public relations firm to aid in messaging about this year’s teacher strike and the economy. The politicians making use of the public relations services, which an independent expenditure political action committee is paying for, are not on this year’s ballot.

Campaign finance experts say promoting off-ballot politicians is very unusual for independent expenditure political action committees, or PACs, such as the one paying for these services. The public relations firm that’s been hired has made national headlines for its possible connection to the FBI special counsel’s probe of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

Emails from employees of public relations firm Mercury, LLC, sent to West Virginia Public Broadcasting reporters — and others in news media who cover state government — have recently solicited interviews with Senate President Mitch Carmichael.

Those emails — which were sent by Mercury employees Katya Myagkova and Brent Petrone throughout the month of August — sought to have reporters speak with Carmichael regarding the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and federal legislation attempting to curb the country’s opioid crisis. The emails included a banner image with “West Virginia’s Future PAC” and signatures identifying Petrone and Myagkova as Mercury employees.

Emails between Carmichael, Sen. Craig Blair and Mercury employees — obtained by West Virginia Public Broadcasting through a public records request under the state’s Freedom of Information Act — also indicate the firm was helping GOP Senate leadership tailor messaging around a number of issues and craft a “proper narrative” regarding this year’s teacher strike and West Virginia’s economy leading up to the 2018 midterm elections, despite neither Carmichael nor Blair being up for re-election this year.

Emails Show Mercury Helped Carmichael, Blair Craft Messaging on Teachers, Economy

While records show that West Virginia’s Future PAC spent a total of $21,731 in August on digital advertising services from Pittsburgh-based company Fifth Influence in support of Republican Senate incumbents Ryan Ferns, Ed Gaunch and Tom Takubo in the general election cycle, $37,500 the committee spent this reporting period was paid to Fulcrum Campaign Strategies, for consulting and PR services mostly used by Carmichael.

In a July 19 email sent at 8:24 a.m. with the subject “Thank you,” Carmichael contacted Mercury employees Nicole Flotteron, Chapin Fay and Dan Bank — all of whom hold the title of senior vice president.

“Thank you for conducting the on-site meeting/training yesterday. Our team was very impressed with all aspects of Mercury. The outside entities that we invited and that gained further exposure to your team were equally impressed,” Carmichael wrote in the first of two emails sent to Mercury employees July 19. “We look forward to working with you to craft the proper narrative as to the West Virginia comeback story and Republican commitment to education.”

Parry Casto, from Huntington W.Va., leads a rally outside the Senate Chambers in the West Virginia Capitol in Charleston, W.Va., Monday, March 5, 2018. Hundreds of teachers from 55 counties are on strike for pay raises and better health benefits. Photo: AP

Another email sent July 19, this one with the subject line “Response to local AFT leaders agreeing with our statement” and sent at 8:37 a.m., Carmichael seeks advice from Flotteron, Fay and Bank in messaging related to teacher unions.

“What do you think of crafting a message in which we commend Christine Campbell, WV-AFT, and Dale Lee, WVEA, for agreeing with us and rejecting the socialist agenda of the national AFT?” Carmichael wrote. “The message could give credit to the WV Teachers for recognizing that the socialist policies of the left wing union bosses is not good for our state and would damage the economic recovery that is occurring under Republican leadership. Your thoughts……”

Days earlier, on July 17, Carmichael drew attention for a thread of eight tweets in which he criticized the American Federation of Teachers’ adoption of a platform at the union’s national conference in Pittsburgh.

Teachers in West Virginia — backed by the West Virginia Education Association and the American Federation of Teachers-West Virginia — went on strike for nine days during the 2018 legislative session demanding better wages and a permanent fix to the health care program for state employees, the Public Employees Insurance Agency.

With the Republican Senate majority once rejecting a 5 percent pay increase for teachers, the strike ended with the passage of a bill doing just that — but adding raises for all state employees — and the creation of a task force on the health care issue. The bill was passed only after being sent to a conference committee between the House and Senate, where members finally agreed to the 5 percent raises.

In the interest of full disclosure, the Educational Broadcasting Authority, which does business as West Virginia Public Broadcasting, is an independent state agency. As such, its employees also received the pay hike.

During and since the strike, leaders of teacher unions and their members have taken aim at GOP Senate leaders — particularly Carmichael — promising an education-focused takeover of the Legislature in the 2018 midterms. Through their political action committees, the unions have supported candidates they see as promoting a pro-public education agenda. The unions have largely supported Democratic candidates.

Carmichael and other top Republicans in the Senate have taken credit in recent months for the pay raise for teachers and all other public employees, despite the caucus’ holdouts that drew out the strike. Some of the messaging around teacher issues has taken place under the consultation of Mercury.

“I’m not up for re-election,” Carmichael said when asked about his use of Mercury for help with messaging on the aftermath of the teacher strike and its potential impact on the upcoming election. “I just want to make sure that the proper narrative is spoken as it relates to the teacher issue, because I think I’ve not — in my years of public service — seen anything have so much misinformation about a particular issue.”

Despite not being on the ballot for the 2018 midterms, Carmichael has been a target — with his name and face being placed on billboards and other campaign materials reading “Ditch Mitch!” and “Ditch the Mitches And Their Candidates,” referring to Carmichael and U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. The latter of those two advertisements also states that Carmichael was “attacking teachers and public schools.”

Carmichael argues that those efforts, funded by the West Virginia Democratic Party, have mischaracterized him in terms of what unfolded during the teacher strike.

“The press, in large measure, does a good job, but some of those opposing — the people that want to just create havoc — are distorting that message and, so, I think it’s important for the people to know the truth and to hear it as it really occurred,” Carmichael said about the narrative surrounding the strike.

CREDIT WEST VIRGINIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY

“The West Virginia’s Future PAC – which is an entity outside the legislative purview — contracted with Mercury to develop that messaging and make sure the story is told in a way that, you know, is sort of what we believe is the truth about the story and cut through all the different aspects of distortions and so forth. So, they’re working with West Virginia’s Future PAC to develop that message and make sure it gets out,” he added.

Other emails show Carmichael forwarded a June 8 email newsletter from the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce to Flotteron. A June 14 email from Carmichael to Flotteron detailed state employment numbers from May sent to members of the West Virginia Legislature from West Virginia Chamber president Steve Roberts. “I’m compiling more data and will forward in a string of emails,” Carmichael wrote to Flotteron.

An Aug. 8 email from Carmichael with the subject line “Fwd: Strikes Again?” included a newsletter forwarded to Mercury employees from The Center for Education Reform sent to Carmichael the day before. The newsletter detailed the possibility of teacher strikes by union members in Puerto Rico and Los Angeles.

More recently, Carmichael sought advice in responding to an email newsletter from the West Virginia Center on Budget & Policy. That Sept. 17 email newsletter from the West Virginia Center on Budget & Policy included the headline “New Census Data Shows Lack of Progress in West Virginia.”

“Help me craft response…..” Carmichael wrote in regard to the newsletter from the West Virginia Center on Budget & Policy.

As for Blair, who serves as chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, emails from Aug. 7 between he and Mercury staff show he asked for help when he forwarded a solicitation from D.C.-based website The Washington D.C. 100 — asking him to author a piece of writing on West Virginia’s economy for the website. According to the email forwarded by Blair to Mercury employee Nicole Flotteron, The Washington D.C. 100 is “a bi-weekly publication consisting of 100-word long stories covering key policy issues and current events.”

“Is this useful?” Blair wrote to Flotteron.

“We will write it for you. Standby,” Flotteron replied.

On Aug. 16, The Washington D.C. 100 published a short piece with Blair’s bylinetitled “Economic Growth in West VA.”

About West Virginia’s Future PAC & Mercury, LLC

A campaign finance report filed recently with the West Virginia Secretary of State’s office shows the independent expenditure political action committee West Virginia’s Future raised $320,250 from May 21, 2018 through Sept. 23, 2018. Contributors to that committee during that time period include a $15,000 donation from DuPont spin-off company Chemours as well as a list of more than 200 names of people who donated funds following a Wheeling dinner event on June 28, where the group raised $284,655.

The first general report from West Virginia’s Future PAC was due Friday, Sept. 29, but wasn’t received by the Secretary of State’s office until Oct. 1. According to the state’s campaign finance reporting system, the organization has been late in filing two of its three other reports that have been due. There is no penalty for a filing campaign finance reports after a deadline.

This image was at the top of news releases and interview solicitations Mercury employees sent to West Virginia reporters.

Among the $149,685.19 in expenses the committee paid during the first general election period from May 21 to Sept. 23, two payments totaling $37,500 were paid to Fulcrum Campaign Strategies for “strategic / communications consulting.” According to the District of Columbia’s Department of Consumer and Regulatory Affairs, Fulcrum Campaign Strategies has been used as a trade name for Mercury, LLC. Company officials also confirmed Mercury does business under that name.

According to Mercury’s website, the company is a “global public strategy firm” that handles public relations, public opinion research, crisis management and mergers and acquisitions. The company’s clients include AT&T, Airbnb, eBay, The Ford Foundation, Hyundai, Pfizer, Tesla and Uber. Mercury also lobbies on behalf of foreign governments.

Mercury has come under scrutiny during the past year for possible connections to President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort. In September, Manafort agreed to plead guilty to charges in the indictment and cooperate with FBI special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.

In Manafort’s indictment, two companies identified as “Company A and Company B,” were named as having done work under the direction of Russian-friendly former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Manafort spent nearly a decade as a consultant to Yanukovych and his country’s Party of Regions. A report from NBC News identified “Company A” as Mercury and “Company B” as the Podesta Group.

According to reports from various news outlets citing court filings from Mueller, Mercury could face legal trouble for their connections to Yanukovych.

“We worked for an [non-government organization] based in Brussels that supported Ukraine’s entry into the European Union, which would have driven Ukraine closer to the west and further from Russia’s influence. The project started more than six years ago and ended more than four years ago,” Mercury partner Michael McKeon wrote in an email when asked about the company’s connections to Yanukovych and the the FBI special counsel’s probe of Russian interference.

“We hired lawyers to advise us on proper disclosure, reported our work to Congress in 9 different public lobbying reports and later voluntarily filed a FARA. Any questions you may have about the work is all in the public filings,” McKeon added.

FARA is the acronym for Foreign Agents Registration Act, federal legislation requiring “persons acting as agents of foreign principals in a political or quasi-political capacity to make periodic public disclosure of their relationship with the foreign principal, as well as activities, receipts and disbursements in support of those activities,” according to the U.S. Department of Justice.

McKeon also said none of the Mercury employees on the project in West Virginia worked for the non-government organization and most current employees were not with Mercury at that time of the company’s work linked to Yanukovych.

Carmichael said he was unaware of Mercury’s connections to Manafort’s indictment in the Russian probe when he began working with the firm. He said he later became aware of those ties, but has no concerns about the company.

“I’ve just heard, anecdotally, somebody say, ‘You know, hey, this or that’ about Mercury. I don’t have anything other than just a cursory [understanding of those allegations],” Carmichael said.

Asked about Mercury’s work with Carmichael or anyone else in the West Virginia Senate, McKeon deferred to West Virginia’s Future PAC.

Chris Asbuy, an attorney for West Virginia’s Future PAC, provided a statement to West Virginia Public Broadcasting noting pay raises for state employees, reported economic growth, implemented regulatory reforms and other efforts by the Republican majority in recent years. He attributed those accomplishments to the GOP takeover of the Legislature in 2014.

“West Virginia’s Future PAC hired Mercury to cut through the election year political chatter and help tell this remarkable comeback story directly to West Virginians,” Asbuy wrote.

Independent Expenditure PACs

Independent expenditure political action committees, like West Virginia’s Future, are created to expressly advocate for the election or defeat of a particular candidate — but not in cooperation with or at the request of that candidate. Typically, independent expenditure political action committees would not raise money for services such as polling or public relations services, according to campaign finance experts.

Dan Weiner of New York University School of Law’s Brennan Center for Justice said promoting non-candidates and paying for services like public relations is atypical of independent expenditure political action committees.

“I would say that is quite unusual,” Weiner said. “Bottom line, it is deeply troubling that a PAC would be funneling unlimited money for sitting office-holders, regardless of whether or not they are on the ballot. That raises quite obvious concerns.”

Weiner said political action committees funding politicians not on the ballot -—or services for them — should raise questions about the possibility of political favors being returned in exchange for that help.

Why Mercury, When the Senate Has Its Own Communications Director?

While Mercury’s services have provided public relations support for Carmichael and Blair, the Senate employs its own communications director who works with news media. Jacque Bland currently holds the title of communications director of the Senate, under the supervision of Carmichael in his role as Senate president.

In the position of communications director, Bland works as a liaison between all members of the Senate — regardless of party — and the news media. According to the state auditor’s office, Bland was paid $73,640.01 for her work in 2017.

Asked whether Mercury’s work has affected her job as communications director of the Senate, Bland declined to comment for this story.

Carmichael said the work performed by Mercury — particularly that which is focused on issues related to the teacher strike — is politically motivated and is inherently different than the work Bland does. He said the political messaging should be outsourced to an entity outside the Legislature.

“West Virginia legislative announcements and so forth get published on the Legislature’s website. These recently, on both sides of the aisle, have become very political — they have become too political,” he said.

Carmichael said he has had conversations with Democratic minority leaders Sen. Roman Prezioso and Del. Tim Miley about trying to limit the scope and use of the Legislature’s public information office and get politics out of the equation. Prezioso and Miley confirmed those conversations.

“If it becomes political, you need to use an outside entity to craft that. That message needs to get [put together] outside of here. Jacque does a phenomenal job of getting this messaging — the informational pieces — out to the public. But in terms of it, if it’s going to turn political at all, it needs to be done by a separate political arm outside of this Legislature. And, so, that’s what Mercury’s purpose is,” Carmichael said.

Teacher Strike Still in Focus Ahead of Election with Plans for Additional Raises Announced by Gov. Justice

As the November midterms get closer — and with teachers issues remaining on the minds of voters — Gov. Jim Justice announced this week plans for another 5 percent pay raise for teachers and all other public employees and a promised dedication of $100 million to funding PEIA.

During a news conference Tuesday announcing those plans, Justice touted Republican accomplishments in terms of this past year’s teacher raises and economic growth in general, citing a nearly $120 million budget surplus three months into fiscal year 2019. He also downplayed the role of the unions and the strike.

“Over and over and over, you can say what you want. But, at the end of the day, the teachers’ pay raise last year — the teachers’ pay raise — that all happened not because of people that were ‘rah-rah-ing’ and everything upstairs,” Justice said. “It happened because the good work of the Republicans, the Republicans are the ones that passed it. Your Republican governor is the one came up with the idea of the five percent. Nobody but your Republican governor. The Republican House followed suit.”

Gov. Jim Justice is joined by Republican legislators to announce plans for additional pay raises for public employees in the 2019 legislative session.
Photo: credit office of Gov. Jim Justice.

Justice acknowledged holdouts by Senate Republicans, but also gave credit to the majority caucus in the upper chamber.

“It took a little while to get the Senate on board. But when they came on board, what did they do? They came on board for not only the teachers — they came on board for everybody. Everybody got the five percent,” he said.

In a news release dated Oct. 2 — the same day as Justice’s announcement of plans for another round of raises for state employees — Carmichael released a statement through the Legislature’s public information office. Bland is listed as the contact on the release.

“Thanks to pro-growth policies that have been implemented by the Legislature in recent years, our economy continues to expand, while tax revenue continues to increase, leading to historic budget surpluses,” Carmichael said in the release. “In turn, we are able to use that growth to deliver our teachers the pay increases they need and deserve.”

How much the teacher strike and issues related to public education will impact the 2018 general election remains to be seen.

This article was originally published by West Virginia Public Broadcasting

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Coal Comeback? Coal At New Low After Two Years Under Trump

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It’s been two years since President Donald Trump took office and began rolling back environmental regulations on the coal industry.

At a November rally in Huntington, West Virginia, the president took credit for a coal comeback in front of a cheering crowd.

“We’ve ended the war on beautiful, clean coal and we’re putting our coal miners back to work,” he said. “That you know better than anybody.”

But federal data about the industry tell a different story.

Mine operators and independent contractors are required to report regular employment information to the Department of Labor’s Mine Safety and Health Administration, or MSHA. Preliminary figures for 2018 show 80,778 people were employed by mine operators and contractors. That’s a record low, and about a thousand fewer than were employed by coal in the last year of the Obama administration.

Graphic: Alexandra Kanik, Ohio Valley Resource

Nationwide, coal plant retirements neared a record high, and overall coal production dropped to the lowest level in nearly 40 years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a non-partisan government agency that tracks energy trends.

In the Ohio Valley, things looked much the same. In 2018 two prominent Ohio Valley utilities announced a spate of coal power plant closures, federal data show the region lost 150 industry jobs, and Westmoreland Coal, which has a substantial presence in Ohio, declared bankruptcy.

Graphic: Alexandra Kanik, Ohio Valley Resource

However strong exports of one type of coal continued to support jobs for those who provide metallurgical coal, which is used to make steel. That boosted employment in West Virginia, where the president’s supporters say he is keeping his promise to revive the industry. Elsewhere, others aren’t convinced and are looking for ways to fill the void left by coal’s decline.

Environmental Rollbacks

The Trump administration has leaned heavily on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to try to boost the region’s coal industry. In March, 2017, Trump signed an executive order that kicked off an in-depth review of a series of environmental regulations. Since then, the administration has proposed a series of regulatory rollbacks aimed at helping struggling coal plants and operators.

In August, the EPA proposed a replacement for the Clean Power Plan, an Obama-era regulation that aimed to cut greenhouse gas emissions from power plants by one-third over the coming decades in an effort to stem the effects of climate change.

The Trump EPA has also moved to roll back existing regulations that govern the storage of toxic coal ash. In December, the agency proposed a rule revision that would allow coal plants to emit more carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour of electricity generated by scrapping a requirement that plant operators install expensive technology that reduces emissions. The agency in December also proposed weakening a regulation that limits mercury and other toxic emissions from coal power plants.

The Trump administration last year was also embroiled in an ongoing attempt to bail out struggling coal-fired power plants, which has since stalled.

But many industry analysts believe Trump’s looser environmental rules have not helped the industry.

“So we had some pretty significant regulatory rollbacks in 2018,” said Trevor Houser, a coal analyst at the independent research company Rhodium Group. “And yet, 2018 was a record year in terms of coal plant retirements.” [Story continues below map]

Houser said there is also little indication any utility in the country is planning on building a new coal-fired power plant, even under the current, more relaxed regulatory environment.

Last month, S&P Global Market Intelligence reported Longview Power LLC, which operates one of the newest and most efficient coal-fired power plants in the U.S. just outside of Morgantown, West Virginia, is seeking investment to shift some generation from coal to natural gas and solar. Energy Secretary Rick Perry visited the power plant in the summer of 2017 to tout the benefits of coal in a competitive energy market. 

Across the Ohio Valley, utilities announced more coal power plant closures in 2018. After Ohio-based FirstEnergy Solutions declared bankruptcy, it announced it would close two coal-fired power plants, one in Pennsylvania and one in Ohio. Another of its plants in West Virginia will close by 2022. Another major utility, American Electric Power, announced it was moving up the closure date for some units in its Conesville plant in Ohio to 2019.

A report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, an energy think tank, found cost is the biggest force in coal’s decline. Renewables and gas-fired generation continue to provide a cheaper and more flexible alternative.

The Met Demand

With more power plant closing there are fewer places to sell thermal coal, which is burned to make electricity, and that has a major impacts coal producers in the region.

“If you look at the share of where the coal was headed, the domestic utility market for West Virginia coal continues to decline,” said Jason Bostic with the West Virginia Coal Association. “And that’s extremely concerning.”

Nationwide and as well as in the Ohio Valley the amount of coal mined dropped to the lowest level in nearly 40 years. Coal exports, however, were up, driven largely by international demand for metallurgical, or met coal, by Asian countries.

Kudzu grows near a coal preparation plant in eastern Kentucky. Photo: Jeff Young, Ohio Valley Resource.

“There’s the kind of continual disconnect between the poor fate of the thermal coal market and a little bit more resilient met coal market,” Houser said.

To meet higher met coal demand, some mines in West Virginia and Virginia have reopened. Federal data from MSHA show West Virginia mines added a little over 500 jobs in 2018.

Tom McLoughlin trains coal miners in southwestern Virginia, where some met coal mines have ramped up production. He said he’s been busy since Trump took office.

“As soon as Trump got elected It was like somebody taking the finger out of the dam,” he said. “There was all kinds of activity including especially the training, and it’s held up fairly well since.”

But even in West Virginia, where things have looked slightly better for the industry, there were also some high-profile mine closures. A mine in Wyoming County shut its doors in October, putting about 400 miners out of work.

There are a lot of indications that the international demand for met coal, especially by China, is cooling off.

“In 2019 we have some pretty troubling signs about the outlook for the Chinese economy this coming year and that could take the wind out of the sails of the metallurgical coal market pretty quickly,” said Houser with the Rhodium Group.

Temporary Bump?

It’s possible that West Virginia’s bounce in production could be a brief one. Elsewhere around the Ohio Valley coal employment has been stagnant, at best. Ohio mines added just 16 jobs last year, and Kentucky lost almost 400 jobs, according to MSHA data.

Retired Kentucky miner Larry Miller said it’s not surprising the data show the industry has not bounced back. He added that he didn’t have a lot of faith in Trump’s ability to revive the industry in the first place.

“I don’t think it’s sustainable,” he said. “The EPA relaxing of the rules might help some, but I don’t think it’s the main driver for the job loss.”

Miller worked for more than two decades underground and said he made a good living. In his own backyard he said he’s seeing first-hand that coal is often no longer an economic source for electricity. For example, near his slice of western Kentucky a group of utilities is installing an 800-acre solar farm, further evidence, he said, of coal’s declining importance.

“It’s not going to be gone but it’s not going to be the economic engine that it once was,” Miller said. “And I made a good living in coal for a long time and I liked it, so I don’t take pleasure in saying that.”

TVA’s new gas fired facility, with the older coal units in background. Photo: Becca Schimmel, Ohio Valley Resource.

Recently, the EIA adjusted downward its coal forecast. It says coal production is expected to hit a record low in 2019. Appalachia will see its overall coal production drop from 201.5 million tons in 2018 to 170.1 million tons in 2020, according to the EIA forecast.

Limited Retraining

That doesn’t bode well for miners. Houser, with the Rhodium Group, said while the Trump administration doubled down to boost coal, it has not offered any additional aid for job retraining.

“The past few budget proposals from the Trump administration have actually reduced the amount of support for retraining and economic diversification and coal retraining in coal country,” he said.

Clemmy Allen has been retraining coal miners for more than 30 years for the United Mine Workers of America.

Since 2012, the UMWA’s Career Training Centers in Appalachia has relied on a Department of Labor grant, which provides $5000 in tuition assistance and a $20 daily stipend to West Virginia miners who have been laid off or lost their jobs. He said thousands of miners have taken advantage of the program, but acknowledged it’s also limited.

“It’s very, very difficult for for a person just to … just shut down and go into training and not have money to, you know, meet their monthly obligations,” he said.

Allen said in previous years the center had more federal grants to retrain miners in other states, and he says there are thousands of miners who have lost their jobs over the years who have since found work, but would like to be retrained to do something else.

“We never have enough resources, never,” he added.

This article was originally published by Ohio Valley ReSource.

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Rural’s Connection to Environment Means Bigger Climate-Change Impact

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Mainstays of rural American culture and economy – such as timber, agriculture, tourism, ranching, hunting, fishing, winter sports – could see major disruptions from climate change. The impact will be big enough to disrupt the national economy, a federal report says.

Rural communities face clear economic and environmental risks from a changing climate, according to the 2018 National Climate Assessment.  

The report documents changes in the timing of seasons, temperature fluctuations, increased incidence of extreme weather and change in rainfall – all patterns with the potential disrupt rural economic activities.  

Climate change in rural communities poses an outsized risk to the national economy, the report says. 

Although the majority of the U.S. population lives in urban areas, most of the country is still classified as rural. In this map, counties are classified as rural if they do not include any cities with populations of 50,000 or more. (Figure source: USDA Economic Research Service).

“Rural America’s importance to the country’s economic and social well-being is disproportionate to its population, as rural areas provide natural resources that much of the rest of the United States depends on for food, energy, water, forests, recreation, national character, and quality of life,” the report stated.  

While not all regions face the same impacts due to increased greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, the assessment explains how increased volumes of carbon, methane and other greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere will lead to changing climatic patterns. The report’s authors predict that changes will likely increase volatility in agricultural commodity markets, shift plant and animal ranges, increase the number and intensity of droughts and floods, and increase the number and size of wildfires throughout the rural landscape.  

Tourism is often climate-dependent as well as seasonally dependent. Increasing heat and humidity – projected for summers in the Midwest, Southeast, and parts of the Southwest by mid-century (compared to the period 1961-1990) – is likely to create unfavorable conditions for summertime outdoor recreation and tourism activity. The figures illustrate projected changes in climatic attractiveness (based on maximum daily temperature and minimum daily relative humidity, average daily temperature and relative humidity, precipitation, sunshine, and wind speed) in July for much of North America. In the coming century, the distribution of these conditions is projected to shift from acceptable to unfavorable across most of the southern Midwest and a portion of the Southeast, and from very good or good to acceptable conditions in northern portions of the Midwest, under a high emissions scenario. (Source: National Climate Assessment).

For portions of rural America with an economy based on agriculture, climate scientists are most worried about shifting geographic suitability of particular crops and abnormal timing for planting and harvest. These changes may result in additional use of herbicides and pesticides, which could create additional health risks from chemical applications. Crop and pasture yields and profitability could also be affected by changes in rainfall, temperature and extreme weather events. Increased flooding could increase soil erosion and water pollution from agricultural runoff, according to the report.  

Rural communities with an economy based on recreation and tourism also face significant challenges due to climate change, according to the report. Rising seas could damage rural Florida’s multi-billion dollar recreational fishing sector and cause further ecological damage to the Everglades region.  

Coastal erosion and rising oceans throughout the nation could affect wildlife habitat, disrupting hunting, fishing, bird watching, and other wildlife-related activities. 

Rural places with significant winter recreation activities could face risks as snow-pack is expected to decrease.  

Forest-dependent rural communities are likely to face significant change as well. Forest geographies and species composition are likely to shift as the climate changes. The number of pests and disease will increase. These factors could decrease timber and pulp harvests in some places. Forest fires are also expected to continue to increase in number, intensity and cost.  

The report identifies certain demographic trends in rural communities that make climate change adaptation more difficult.  

“Modern rural populations are generally older, less affluent, and less educated than their urban counterparts. Rural areas are characterized by higher unemployment, more dependence on government transfer payments, less diversified economies, and fewer social and economic resources needed for resilience in the face of major changes,” the report states. That combination of an aging population with higher poverty rates increases vulnerability of rural people and places to changes in climate.  

“Emergency management, energy use and distribution systems, transportation and infrastructure planning, and public health will all be affected,” the study states. State, regional, local and tribal governments in rural communities tend to be under-funded and rely heavily on volunteers.  

“Even in communities where there is increasing awareness of climate change and interest in comprehensive adaptation planning, lack of funding, human resources, access to information, training, and expertise provide significant barriers for many rural communities,” the report concludes. 

This report is the fourth National Climate Assessment, and summarizes the impacts of climate change on the United States. The report process was established by the Global Change Research Act of 1990 and mandates that the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) deliver a report to Congress and the president no less than every four years.  

A team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee developed the report. Scientists and researchers from federal, state and local governments, tribes and Indigenous communities, national laboratories, universities, and the private sector volunteered their time to produce the assessment. Information was gathered through a series of regional engagement workshops that reached more than 1,000 individuals in over 40 cities. Listening sessions, webinars and public comment periods also provided valuable input.  

This article was originally published by Daily Yonder.

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When Losing 14 to 1 is a Win — Sort Of

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Matthew Ferrence is a writer and college professor who ran a 14-day write-in campaign against an unopposed Pennsylvania state legislator. He got clobbered but finds something positive in the results. Photo: submitted by the author
A last-minute write-in campaign against an unopposed Pennsylvania state representative yielded 900 official votes. It wasn’t nearly enough to win, but it was enough to show that there’s more to Appalachia than the average TV pundit claims.
Well, I didn’t win. Let’s get that out of the way.But on the night of November 6th, 2018, after launching a last-minute zero-budget Green Party write-in campaign against an unopposed Republican incumbent, in a Pennsylvania district that perpetually votes at about a 70 percent clip for even Republicans who get absolutely blasted in statewide races (see: gubernatorial candidate Scott Wagner, soundly defeated by Tom Wolfe), I wound up making a nearly 5 percent dent.

The how isn’t quite as important as they why, I think, but in brief: exactly two weeks before the election, I announced on Facebook my intention to mount a write-in campaign for the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, disgusted that for the fourth time in seven elections, the local incumbent — Brad Roae — faced literally no competition. Nobody squared off against him in the Republican primary and nobody ran on the Democratic ticket. In fact, only twice in his tenure has he faced opposition from Democrats, each of them throttled to the tune of 60-40 or thereabouts in the general election.

As an even sorrier indication of the state of political engagement in the rural part of Northwestern Pennsylvania where I live, only once has a Republican ever challenged him in a primary. It’s smooth sailing every two years, which leads to a tepid, basic and uninspiring legislative track record. Taxes are bad, he says. And, oh, let’s have some laws to weaken environmental protections for gas well drilling. He has made public media posts that appear to equate school boards to Hitler, and he has argued that state funding shouldn’t support students who major in “poetry or some other pre-Walmart major.”

Yeah, that’s who I lost to, my 900 votes or so to his 13,000. And that’s the guy who has gone to Harrisburg for more than a decade representing my home. Among the many things that gall me about his incumbency is the way that, outside of Appalachia, a lot of people would probably nod their heads and say, yup. Brad Roae is the kind of representative people think Appalachia embraces, is the kind of person so many non-Appalachians see as purely representative of who we are and what we stand for.

But here’s the thing. I’m finding hope in my two weeks as a candidate, and in the sudden flurry of interest and support. I ran because there had to be some opposition for democracy to have any chance at all, and when I did so I hoped I’d get 1 or 2 percent, not embarrass myself, shoot for the bar of 300 votes. That would be the same number of votes I would have needed as signatures to get on the ballot had I, say, planned ahead.

Then a funny thing happened. I started making videos introducing myself and my ideas, and put together a platform paper, and people started sharing these materials on Facebook, and I had to work through the anti-Russian Bot regulations the social media site now has so I could finally “boost” two of those posts on the morning of the election, and even before all that the organic sharing of an electorate dying for something, anything, that pushed against Appalachian political stereotypes meant 9,000 people had seen my stuff. Then, even though people had to first know I was running and then actually bother typing my name in, I fared okay. I earned about 65 votes for each day of my campaign. And I spent $50 on stickers, $20 on my Facebook ads.

Brad Roae poses in the Pennsylvania House chamber with Pennsylvania dairy princess LeeAnn Kapanick. Roae has represented the 6th House district since 2007. The district covers parts of Crawford and Erie counties in the state’s northwest corner. Photo: Pennsylvania State Legislature webpage

Official county returns compiled right before Thanksgiving gave me 851 votes. The Monday following, I reviewed the official computations and found another 60+, if I include misspellings like Matt Terrance and, Michael Ferrence, and Matthew Fetterman (for a voter who maybe confused me with our Democratic Lt. Governor candidate John Fetterman), and That Guy Whose Name Starts With F, as well as The Guy on Facebook Ask (name redacted), as well as a litany of close-but-no-cigar last names coupled with Matt or Matthew: Ferrer, Ferraro, Fetter, Farreah, Ferrenc, Ferrous, Ferris, Ferentz, Ferrick, and DeFerence. I got 14 votes in neighboring state districts, and four votes for the U.S. House Race. Among other write-ins, I beat a slew of names that received a single vote or a handful, tough competitors like Brad Roae (who a few people wrote in, even though he was on the ballot), Stephen Colbert, Anyone But Him, Anyone Else, Jesus, God, and Red Breasted Nuthatch.

Look, my day job is writing and teaching. I’m a professor at a small liberal arts college, chair of the Department of English, writer and teacher of creative nonfiction. I was born in southwestern Pennsylvania, among the played out coal fields and strip mines an hour east of Pittsburgh. I earned a Ph.D. at West Virginia University, where I specialized in Appalachian literature. I wrote a memoir about my brain tumor, and the geology of the Allegheny Plateau, and the curious exile of inhabiting the weird position of Northern Appalachian, which means you’re not quite normal American and not quite Appalachian. None of that adds up to politician, but all of it adds up to frustration. I’ve spent most of my life, other than brief adult stints in Arizona and France, living in a region that skews way right, even as that right continues to exploit and degrade the people and place. All Appalachia ever has been allowed to be is exploited. That’s it. And that’s all the rhetoric of the GOP offers, when you boil it down. Let’s Make America Great Again, like when black lung wrecked lives on the regular and, newsflash, is now roaring back to life since the unions have been busted, and the economy of the region stayed busted, so the people crawled down into mines without the protections hard fought with blood and love by the striking workers of Blair Mountain, and the striking workers of Pittsburgh steel, and the striking auto workers of the Rust Belt.

Ferrence knocked on some doors and created a Facebook page to promote his campaign. He did several short videos to explain why he ran and discuss issues. Photo: Matthew Ferrence for PA House, District 6 Facebook page

Public historian Elizabeth Catte gets it right (she’s the author of “What You’re Getting Wrong about Appalachia”) when she argues that Appalachians have been socialists all along. They just don’t know it. They gathered together. They fought the power of industrial dominion. They powered America with their coal, yes, but they also fueled the national movement for respect and dignity for labor. Then the GOP figured out how to weaponize hatred and fear, and there you go. You get Joe Manchin, alleged Democrat. And you get a region that votes more than 2/3 for Trump and Trump-esque troglodytes like Pennsylvania’s GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott Wagner, who claims that global warming is probably just accumulated body heat from a larger human population or happens because the earth is getting closer to the sun, and campaigns by saying he’ll dance on the governor’s face while wearing golf spikes.

It boils down to this: I am so tired of waking up on November Wednesdays in Appalachia, seeing election results and, worse, national punditry that says this is all we are and all we’ll ever be. The election map of my state is bright red, other than around a few urban centers, just like most of Appalachia. That seems to translate to the same conclusion we get over and over and over again: dumb hillbillies voting for the worst. That conclusion seems to be supported by the simple math of our state politics, where more than half of state legislators run unopposed in their general elections, and our incumbency rate is about 90 percent. Few candidates ever put up a fight to change that.

So what’s an Appalachian creative writing professor to do? You run a last-ditch campaign. You tilt against the windmills in a manner that is both impotent (because you get crushed at the polls) and, at least for me, hopeful. Because having a choice, any choice, other than the incumbent mattered to the 2,000 people who either voted for me or tossed in a symbolic protest write-in. Because people stopped me when I walked by, and messaged me on Facebook, and were angry when they learned about the campaign only after they voted because, damn it, they couldn’t vote for the incumbent, and leaving it blank is just what the GOP has wanted for so long. The story of Appalachian politics has been about that blankness, a cultivation of the sense — and you can read this in almost every national outlet at some point in the last two years, usually with a quote from that faux-Appalachian pseudo-pundit J.D. Vance — that there’s nothing but right-wing fools in these hills and hollers. Appalachia is given up for dead again, this time just as a tarnished example of the hatred and backwardness of politics in this strange, strange land.

That’s just not how it is. That’s not the Appalachia I know nor the one I saw in my brief campaign. Heck, I ran this mini-campaign focused specifically on lefty sustainability, as in ecology and tree-hugging, as well as economies that stop repeating the boom-bust cycles of our past, and I drew a mighty good swipe of votes all at once, in the end. There are a lot of people in my county who believe in the value of the environment, and the necessity of fine educations, and the rightness of universal healthcare, and the imperative of social justice, and the glory of love in all its forms. There are progressives in these hills, you know. And a lot of them, but also a lot who hear those same old stories and worry about what the neighbors will think, so they don’t vote, or accept the inevitability of political monoculture. Thus the slam happens again. And again. And again. Unopposed Republican. Platforms of no taxes. Tacit acceptance of the Confederate Battle Flags that flutter on too many once-Union farmhouses.

Yeah, I got creamed. But I think we also won something that night. And we’ll keep coming back for more, riding a blue wave tinged with green, fighting for a change in the rural center of America that so many figure is lost forever. You know the joke, about Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and a lot of Alabama in between. Well, Alabama has a Democratic Senator, and so does Pennsylvania. We can do more, do better, push against the dogged stupidity of a right-wing cultural war that makes us all weaker and worse off. We can step into these races, and we can square off and say, hit me, and we can get hit, and eventually we can win. I know I’ll give it another shot – with my name printed on the ballot next time. I’ll need at least a couple of months next time, to get enough votes to be competitive, if history holds. But I’ll vow, and I hope others will too, that no one gets to run unopposed anymore. No one gets to spit out tired political bullshit and not get called out. This is our Appalachia too.

This article was originally published by the Daily Yonder

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